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Chances of fall 2021 in person?

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Guys, this zoom thing is torture. What’s your predictions for fall 2021? I really want to say 30% in class and winter 2022, 100% 

 

thoughts? 

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3 minutes ago, queenslawstudent1 said:

0%

I second this. Specifically, my shoddy guess is: Fall 2021 being in-person at 0% and Winter 2022 being in-person at 99% (fight me). 

I personally don't mind zoom classes. I just feel like my youth is wasting away at home, but thingscouldbeworsesoIguessitsnotreallythat bad. 

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If the vaccine rollout schedule occurs as planned, and I realize that’s a big if, then I don’t see why next year couldn’t be in person (at least from a COVID perspective).

That said, speaking at least in the context of Western, they scheduled a fair bit of in-person this semester obviously thinking that would be workable by now and with the recent lockdown/stay at home order, that’s all been pushed back to late February, so perhaps going forward they’ll err on the side of caution.

I think there is a challenge, though, with having only half the year in person. Securing housing would likely be a problem, either because you’re paying rent for fall months you don’t need to or because you’d have a hard time finding a place in November for January (or such places would want longer rental periods than you might be willing to sign).

While I think Winter 2022, from a public health perspective, will be good to go in person, I think it’s possible that other factors prevent it.

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Law schools don't care about your housing problem, that's on you.

0% in person for fall
50/50 on winter 2022

Fall 2022: maybe. There will be lots of students and faculty who will still need to be accomodated with online classes 

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TRU Law is planning an in-person transition committee for fall 2021, so the chances are higher than 0%.

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Forgive my ignorance here, but I was hoping someone could explain their reasoning behind why they think chances of in person classes in Fall 2021 would be 0%. 

Edited by capitalttruth
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Fall 2021 - 75% in person

Winter 2022 - 100% in person

Barring some massive failure in the vaccine roll-out I don’t see a reason to have an online only semester. I personally think it would be safe to have students back even if they haven’t vaccinated our age group. The pressure on the hospitals should drop off significantly once the over 50 population is vaccinated. 

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UofT, Queens, Western, and maybe some other non-Ontario schools all started Fall 2020 in person with masks on. I don't see why this model wouldn't also be used once a decent portion of the population has been vaccinated. 

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There is significant variation across the province. I'm not clear on what happened elsewhere, but my understanding is that all Ontario university law programs were online in some way this fall. Do correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm 1L at Osgoode, it was fully online for me. Upper year students there were clinical and intensives that had an in-person component and the criminal trial advocacy program ran in person for at least part of the fall. For 1L there was a two week intensive in August-September that offered optional in-person attendance for a few students for a couple sessions while the rest of us were on Zoom. 

After what happened this fall at some universities where they started in person and then had to move online, I think administrators will be a little more reluctant from the beginning to start with in-person when they know from their experience this year that it was not possible to follow that plan. 

From a public health perspective, medical leaders want universities to stay remote as much as possible. Osgoode and Ryerson are both embeded in neighbourhoods where people experience significant marginalization and limited access to health care and have extremely high rates of Covid. Bringing thousands of students into those neighbourhoods is irresponsible. At U of T the risk is not as significant for the immediate neighbourhood but it is for the region as a whole.

Our vaccine roll-out is not proceeding quickly enough to ensure vaccination rates will be high enough by September, and keep in mind that decision has to be made much earlier and it's easier to stick with the status quo than it is to change. This past academic year, the decision to be online for fall was made by middle of July at Osgoode, and by August, we knew winter would be online.

My best case scenario prediction is that fall will be fully online, or as fully as it was this past year, and by winter, some universities will have in-person as an option but the option to stay remote will have to remain available for equity reasons.

 

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4 hours ago, masterofnut said:

UofT, Queens, Western, and maybe some other non-Ontario schools all started Fall 2020 in person with masks on. I don't see why this model wouldn't also be used once a decent portion of the population has been vaccinated. 

Queen's only had ~1/2 of the 1L classes in-person in Fall 2020 and maybe 5 total upper year courses in-person, I never had an in-person class. Now everything is online. Can't speak for the others, though!

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11 hours ago, capitalttruth said:

Forgive my ignorance here, but I was hoping someone could explain their reasoning behind why they think chances of in person classes in Fall 2021 would be 0%. 

 

1) The institutions in charge of procuring vaccinations and rolling out vaccinations (the federal government and provincial governments) are largely incompetent. Expect delays.

2) There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the vaccinations. Specifically, how long the immunity will last and how effective the vaccines will be against the constantly mutating virus.

 

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1 hour ago, queenslawstudent1 said:

Queen's only had ~1/2 of the 1L classes in-person in Fall 2020 and maybe 5 total upper year courses in-person, I never had an in-person class. Now everything is online. Can't speak for the others, though!

Right. Sorry, I should've wrote that those schools started partially in-person. Same with UofT, and I think Western 1Ls were all in-person while 2L/3L was all online. Nonetheless, I do think there will be a number of schools which will choose to do a hybrid model, where in person classes are distanced and with masks. Maybe I'm just being optimistic. 

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3 hours ago, JimmyMcGill said:

Bringing thousands of students into those neighbourhoods is irresponsible. At U of T the risk is not as significant for the immediate neighbourhood but it is for the region as a whole

What do you mean by that? On what basis do you make that distinction? 

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I think the answer really depends on what other vaccines get approved between now and the summer. If Health Canada approves both AstraZeneca and J&J, I think we are likely heading back in the Fall (with maybe the option of staying online in some places).

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http://ultravires.ca/2020/10/sad-attempt-at-a-semester/ 

I don't really agree with or endorse the majority of this article but the "In-Person Classes Aren’t Really In-Person" part is a fairly accurate description of how UofT's attempt to begin the fall semester with everyone wearing masks and socially distanced had gone. The barriers to practical execution of an in-person semester during an ongoing pandemic should not be underestimated.

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This is all speculation but I'd assume that if vaccination rates hit even 80% of their September target we will be back in person. 

Now the question is, will those targets be hit? Having seen some of the behind the scenes prep work for OP Vector and knowing that Big Rick is in charge of the distribution, I am personally quite confident in the distribution being successful. 

 

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I also think it's interesting that Western's president, Alan Shepard, said he's optimistic that Western will be returning in Fall 2021 to being a primarily face-to-face institution. I know that isn't a certainty, but for someone who is tired of ZOOM classes, I'm hopeful that he's right. I also don't know whether the Law School would take a different route. 

https://westerngazette.ca/news/shepard-optimistic-western-will-return-to-normal-next-fall/article_51c737d4-3829-11eb-996c-b7dd1de3b326.html

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There is so much that is unknown. It's probably best to expect to be online, which in my opinion is likely in September, and then if, by chance, things go better than expected, you will be pleasantly surprised. 

Always keep in mind that schools will likely have to make these decisions well ahead of the start dates for the next school year.

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