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toastedguac

Let's read tea leaves and look at LSAC data on number of applicants

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https://report.lsac.org/ThreeYearComparison.aspx

 

It's pretty much agreed upon that the Canadian flag represents number of applicants to Canadian schools. The historical numbers from the chart also check out with how many people usually apply each year. With that being said, some people claim that their school (Osgoode, UBC) have experienced an increase in apps, which could still happen when the number of apps as a whole is down. What's really happening?

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I'm pretty sure that LSAC derives its stats from the number of LSAT requests sent out so I doubt their info is wrong or misleading. I was honestly shocked at the supposed increase in applications Western and Osgoode both reported. At the end of the day, these schools are still businesses and it wouldn't be far fetched to assume that they're not being 100% honest in regard to the number of applications they've received. 

I just can't fathom how a recession would lead to hundreds of extra applications. I get it could lead to a few more (50-100?) but I doubt hundreds of extra people decided to apply to law school on a whim. Most of us here have planned out our law school aspirations for years, if there really are that many extra applicants it's hard to imagine that the majority of them would even be competitive.

Just my two cents.

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14 minutes ago, Leafs2021 said:

I'm pretty sure that LSAC derives its stats from the number of LSAT requests sent out so I doubt their info is wrong or misleading. I was honestly shocked at the supposed increase in applications Western and Osgoode both reported. At the end of the day, these schools are still businesses and it wouldn't be far fetched to assume that they're not being 100% honest in regard to the number of applications they've received. 

I just can't fathom how a recession would lead to hundreds of extra applications. I get it could lead to a few more (50-100?) but I doubt hundreds of extra people decided to apply to law school on a whim. Most of us here have planned out our law school aspirations for years, if there really are that many extra applicants it's hard to imagine that the majority of them would even be competitive.

Just my two cents.

Word, it's hard to imagine how a recession would cause an increase in applicants in the first year who decided mid March to apply in November. Maybe next year there'll be a bigger increase. The American increase makes more sense as it predictably surges every election year apparently.

Edited by toastedguac

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13 minutes ago, Leafs2021 said:

I just can't fathom how a recession would lead to hundreds of extra applications. I get it could lead to a few more (50-100?) but I doubt hundreds of extra people decided to apply to law school on a whim. Most of us here have planned out our law school aspirations for years, if there really are that many extra applicants it's hard to imagine that the majority of them would even be competitive.

Just my two cents.

I agree with this. My best guess is that there are people who did not plan on applying but due to the economic downturn thought "let's see what happens." 

Many who discuss the increase in application seem to assume that it must mean a more competitive pool but that may not necessarily be the case. I don't think we can make any inferences from that information other than more people have applied. 

The composition of that difference? Who knows. It could just as likely be the same proportion of competitive and non-competitive people as it could be people who threw in hail mary applications. 

I know its hard for all of us as we wait to hear back but there's no point in trying to overanalyze this. We've all done our best by applying. There's nothing more we can do now, so sit back, relax and enjoy your flight.

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17 minutes ago, Leafs2021 said:

I just can't fathom how a recession would lead to hundreds of extra applications. I get it could lead to a few more (50-100?) but I doubt hundreds of extra people decided to apply to law school on a whim. Most of us here have planned out our law school aspirations for years, if there really are that many extra applicants it's hard to imagine that the majority of them would even be competitive.

You should go back and look at application stats for law school (or any post-grad program really) from 2008, or any other economic downturn really. During times of economic uncertainty a lot of people will either delay entering the work force to stay in school, or will leave the work force (voluntarily or involuntarily) to go back to school for additional training. 

I was hoping that COVID might be a bit different given people are reluctant to jump into online schooling, but that hope wasn't based on anything of substance. Given the uncertainty of, well, everything, I'm not at all surprised to see a spike in the number of people wanting to go back to the relative safety of academia.

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6 minutes ago, toastedguac said:

Word, it's hard to imagine how a recession would cause an increase in applicants in the first year who decided mid March to apply in November. Maybe next year there'll be a bigger increase. The American increase makes more sense as it predictably surges every election year apparently.

I just realized that the stats are for Canadian students applying to schools in the states, not Canadian students applying to schools in Canada. This makes a lot more sense because both American and Canadian applicants saw a dip due to COVID. Regardless, I still stand firm on my point that I doubt that there's that many extra applicants and if there are, the majority won't be competitive 

Edited by Leafs2021

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3 minutes ago, Leafs2021 said:

I just realized that the stats are for Canadian students applying to schools in the states, not Canadian students applying to schools in Canada. This makes a lot more sense because both American and Canadian applicants saw a dip due to COVID. Regardless, I still stand firm on my point that I doubt that there's that many extra applicants and if there are, the majority won't be competitive 

You think so? The numbers on the chart match the number of people applying to law school in Canada in past years. It seems odd that LSAC would be interested in tracking number of Canadian applicants to American schools

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Wasn't there a post a few weeks ago discussing the inflated LSAT scores because of the flex? We can't be sure that those extra applicants are not competitive. It's possible that the economic downturn is causing people to return to school for higher education but that doesn't necessarily mean they don't have good stats. 

It would be nice if other schools released the number of applicants as well so there would be a better estimate of how much increase there really is. We only know about Western and Osgoode for now.  

Edited by Dreamchaser

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This was already discussed in another thread. Basically, the general consensus was that the LSAC data tracks Canadian applicants to US schools. This was partially corroborated by the fact that the LSAC data presents a considerable decrease in applications when Western and Osgoode have since disclosed an overall applicant increase of ~600 applications (compared to the last few years). Obviously this is a small sample set, but some believe this will be representative of a general trend. 

If not, and the LSAC data does in fact track Canadian applicants, then: (i) the dataset has not been updated or; (ii) there is an anomalous increase in applications at some schools in the country and a decrease in applications at others. 

ETA: either way, there's no point stressing about this since it's out of our hands now!

Edited by undertheletter
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An increase in applications does not necessarily mean a more competitive cycle. People could just be applying more broadly this cycle. Most people do not apply to law school on a whim because the LSAT and application costs are a barrier.  However, if there was fear that this cycle was going to be competitive (and I think there was) it would make sense for people to apply to more schools than they had initially planned to increase their chance of getting a offer.  

Alternatively, if COVID scared people away from the labour market, and there were more impromptu law school applications this year, applications may be up significantly more than number of applicants. If I was applying to law school without having written the LSAT, I would apply to schools broadly in case I got a bad LSAT score. I have no idea if there is actually data to support that people who submit law schools applications without having written the LSAT apply to more schools than people who submit law school applications who already have an LSAT score though.

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One thing for sure, anxious 0Ls like to overanalyze every last bit of information. We can bake cakes out of breadcrumbs. 

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Just now, elcs said:

One thing for sure, anxious 0Ls like to overanalyze every last bit of information. We can bake cakes out of breadcrumbs. 

Very, very tasty cakes.

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4 hours ago, Leafs2021 said:

I just realized that the stats are for Canadian students applying to schools in the states, not Canadian students applying to schools in Canada. This makes a lot more sense because both American and Canadian applicants saw a dip due to COVID. Regardless, I still stand firm on my point that I doubt that there's that many extra applicants and if there are, the majority won't be competitive 

are you sure though? The spikes in Canadian applications coincides with Canadian (particularly ontario) deadlines. 

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4 hours ago, Dreamchaser said:

Wasn't there a post a few weeks ago discussing the inflated LSAT scores because of the flex? We can't be sure that those extra applicants are not competitive. It's possible that the economic downturn is causing people to return to school for higher education but that doesn't necessarily mean they don't have good stats. 

It would be nice if other schools released the number of applicants as well so there would be a better estimate of how much increase there really is. We only know about Western and Osgoode for now.  

As the LSAT is scaled, wouldn't any "inflated" scores just be a function of the general increase in takers? Have seen this issue pop up numerous times in previous threads and it feels like the same issue, only viewed from another angle. 

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