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silvercat

Where can I find the trial judgment for a case?

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Legoego said:

 sleuthing mind

😂😂

Edited by Trew

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On 7/5/2020 at 1:23 PM, BlockedQuebecois said:

People really underestimate how much information can be gleaned from tangential stuff. Hedge funds buy private plane flight data so that they can track when planes take unusual flight paths – you may not think anything of the fact that a jet owned by Occidental Petroleum landed at Epply Airfield, but investors saw it and jumped on it, two days before Occidental announced a $10 billion investment by Berkshire Hathaway to aid in an acquisition.

But... didn't shares of Occidental fall on the news of Buffet's deal?  And didn't they completely tank after it became clear just how bad the deal was?

 

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7 minutes ago, utmguy said:

But... didn't shares of Occidental fall on the news of Buffet's deal?  And didn't they completely tank after it became clear just how bad the deal was?

 

Yeah. Which is why shorting or selling ahead of the announcement would have made money relative to if they didn’t know of Buffett’s involvement.

Shares often fall on news of Buffett’s investments, because they’re often disadvantageous to existing shareholders. In the Occidental case, he was mainly purchasing preferred shares which weren’t affected by potential dividend cuts to the common shares traded publicly. Another good example is Dominion Energy losing a tenth of its market cap since it announced it was selling off assets to Berkshire Hathaway’s energy unit 

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2 minutes ago, BlockedQuebecois said:

Yeah. Which is why shorting or selling ahead of the announcement would have made money relative to if they didn’t know of Buffett’s involvement.

Shares often fall on news of Buffett’s investments, because they’re often disadvantageous to existing shareholders. In the Occidental case, he was mainly purchasing preferred shares which weren’t affected by potential dividend cuts to the common shares traded publicly. Another good example is Dominion Energy losing a tenth of its market cap since it announced it was selling off assets to Berkshire Hathaway’s energy unit 

But that wasn't what the insider's analysis was.  The insider who got the info on the plane activity predicted that OXY shares would jump past $76 (from around $61 per share).

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/a-corporate-jet-revealed-buffett-energy-deal-days-before-announcement.html

“Here is where it gets a little more interesting. Warren Buffett does not show up as a holder of OXY or APC or CVX. And a quick search of OXY’s 10-K for ‘Nebraska’ turns up nothing. Yet for some reason, an OXY jet was seen in Omaha yesterday. That strikes us as an odd trip for OXY to make, especially on a Sunday and while it is engaged in a high-stakes M&A battle. While we can’t say what OXY might have been doing in Omaha yesterday, it has occurred to us that it might be trying to bring Buffett into this deal and help with the cash portion of its offer. We have assumed that OXY could go higher than $76 and if it really has paid Buffett a visit, we suspect it is gearing up to top CVX’s inevitable bump. This mention comes with the standard caveat that Corporate Jet information can be noisy and difficult to read.”

 

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On 6/25/2020 at 11:34 AM, CleanHands said:

Some of us hate using phones though.

You won’t like them any more after trying to get Registry staff on the phone (depending on the Registry, of course.)

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Posted (edited)
On 7/7/2020 at 9:18 PM, utmguy said:

But that wasn't what the insider's analysis was.  The insider who got the info on the plane activity predicted that OXY shares would jump past $76 (from around $61 per share).

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/a-corporate-jet-revealed-buffett-energy-deal-days-before-announcement.html

“Here is where it gets a little more interesting. Warren Buffett does not show up as a holder of OXY or APC or CVX. And a quick search of OXY’s 10-K for ‘Nebraska’ turns up nothing. Yet for some reason, an OXY jet was seen in Omaha yesterday. That strikes us as an odd trip for OXY to make, especially on a Sunday and while it is engaged in a high-stakes M&A battle. While we can’t say what OXY might have been doing in Omaha yesterday, it has occurred to us that it might be trying to bring Buffett into this deal and help with the cash portion of its offer. We have assumed that OXY could go higher than $76 and if it really has paid Buffett a visit, we suspect it is gearing up to top CVX’s inevitable bump. This mention comes with the standard caveat that Corporate Jet information can be noisy and difficult to read.”

 

That’s... not what that says. 

The analyst was predicting what OXY’s bid price would be, as it was “gearing up to top [Chevron’s] inevitable bump”. 

They were ultimately wrong. I think the bid ended up being approved at just north of $72 per share in cash and Occidental stock. Although query what the value of the bid was when it was made, it’s possible it amounted to $76 per share prior to the devaluation in Occidental’s shares.

My recollection is that Gordon Haskett never took a position on whether or not the acquisition was a good one or not, but I could be wrong.

All of this is rather besides the point though, isn’t it? The point is that incidental information can be used to draw conclusions if other information is present. Whether or not people react “properly”, as measured by hindsight, to that information isn’t relevant. 

Edited by BlockedQuebecois
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1 hour ago, BlockedQuebecois said:

That’s... not what that says. 

The analyst was predicting what OXY’s bid price would be, as it was “gearing up to top [Chevron’s] inevitable bump”. 

They were ultimately wrong. I think the bid ended up being approved at just north of $72 per share in cash and Occidental stock. Although query what the value of the bid was when it was made, it’s possible it amounted to $76 per share prior to the devaluation in Occidental’s shares.

My recollection is that Gordon Haskett never took a position on whether or not the acquisition was a good one or not, but I could be wrong.

All of this is rather besides the point though, isn’t it? The point is that incidental information can be used to draw conclusions if other information is present. Whether or not people react “properly”, as measured by hindsight, to that information isn’t relevant. 

I think your interpretation is correct.  The $76 quoted represented the bid price for Anadarko.  My error. 

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