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Waitlisted (Robson Hall) 2020

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36 minutes ago, ally123 said:

At 163, is there even a chance?? I looked at last years wait list and seems barely anyone got in from it 

assuming it goes in order, I saw someone get in who was at like 88 or something last year, but after that it was all Manitoba residents.

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Here is my logic:

There are roughly 106 spots - last year they made 232 offers (Index + other categories that met the cutoff, but were not taken through the alternate streams)

To see if you **would** have gotten accepted in say 2019:

Take 232 - 106 = 126

If you're waitlist # is less than or equal to 126 - you more likely than not would have been accepted for the 2019-20 year. If your waitlist # is greater than 126 you likely would not have been accepted. 


This only works if we assume that the sampling of applicants year over does not vary much (2018 notwithstanding - ... and I mean COVID-19...) because the character of the entire population of potential applicants (those that apply, and those that don't) is relatively static.


The highest scoring applicant is offered a spot before the next highest scoring applicant is considered, there are only 106 (+/- 1 or 2) spots to be awarded, so on and so on

I mean anything can happen - but as a general guide particularly if your index score is lower than those posted in threads from previous years. Though I'm guessing the "predictive" power breaks down for out of province apps... and none of this is statistically sound anyway ... so here's hoping!


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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Minimum said:

Take 232 - 106 = 126

This method also assumes that Manitoba made less than or equal to 106 early admission offers. 

Take this example, suppose Manitoba sent out 132 early admission offers (of the 232 total offers) in Jan/Feb before the Waitlist is finalized, that means only a 100 offers are made towards the Waitlist, not 126.

So, we have to calculate how many early offers were made last year based on the index cut off score using the chart they give us.

I averaged the grade boundaries for the AGPA and the LSAT to get an approximate number for the index score calculation. I highlighted the index scores using the cut off for this year (76.285), I can't imagine it being much different than that last year.


So, adding it all up, there were approximately 153 early offers made last year. So, ~79 (232 - 153) of the offers went to those Waitlisted. Also, keep in mind that some people withdrew their application before an offer is made to them. That's how you see people in the 90's being accepted from the Waitlist. Those people that withdrew technically were never made an offer. As you hinted in your post, but the whole creating a separate Manitoba Waitlist in July throws a huge wrench into all this. 


I made another calculation using the minimum grade boundaries to see how many of the 153 early offers were within the index cut off for sure. That came to being 71 for sure.


232 - 71 = 161 Offers for the Waitlist.

So, the number of offers made towards the Waitlist last year should be anywhere between 79 to 161. It should be leaning closer towards the 79 figure. Since, the 79 reflects the average numbers used, which would be more accurate than the minimum numbers. 

Edited by robobrain
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