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shmaleb

Breakdown of Applicant Profile Stats 2019/2020

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I couldn't find a post about it for this year's applicant profile so I've crunched the numbers to come up with percentiles, rough curve, and other such data from the UofA's released applicant profile for 2019/2020. To calculate your index score take the GPA from your last 60 credits (L2), multiply it by 22.5, and add your LSAT score. Ex: (3.5*22.5)+165 = 243.75. Keep in mind that this index is only a guess at what the university is doing to calculate your academic standing, if we use 22 instead of 22.5 then the numbers come out a little different.

With the above index calculation the applicant profile looks like this:

  151 153.5 155.5 157.5 159.5 161.5 163.5 165.5 168 173 TOTAL
4 241 243.5 245.5 247.5 249.5   253.5 255.5     28
3.9   241.25 243.25 245.25 247.25 249.25 251.25 253.25 255.75 260.75 45
3.8     241 243 245 247 249 251 253.5 258.5 26
3.7       240.75 242.75 244.75 246.75       25
3.6         240.5 242.5 244.5   249 254 13
3.5           240.25 242.25 244.25     9
3.4               242     3
3.3               239.75     1
3.2                      
TOTAL 4 19 23 10 30 23 23 10 5 3 150

 

*note that the lowest possible score to be admitted last year was a 239.75, which is below the typical 240-242 cutoff. Also note that the LSAT scores are given in ranges so I had to average them, in most cases this has little effect but the last column is averaged from 170-176 to 173 which is a pretty substantial difference.

Here is the percentile chart I prepared based on those numbers:

Average = 245.5

Index Score

Percentile

251.25

90

Keener

247.25

75

Scholarship

243.5

50

Plebs

242.75

25

The boys

241

10

ME

*I've read on other forums/reddit that it's generally the top quarter of the admitted students who get a scholarship, so If that's what you want then this chart would indicate that you need a 247.25.

 

Here I've provided a smoothed distribution curve if you want to mentally picture it easier:

chart.png

*Notice that it's the really high scorers driving the average up, but these people are a tiny minority; there is literally is one student with a score of 160. Since the curve is so lopsided like this, you shouldn't worry if you fall below the average, the median is 243.5.

This data is obviously not perfectly reflective of the current applicant pool, but if we assume that this year's applicants are similar we can make a few guesses:

  • You might be able to get in with a 241 index score
  • You can get a scholarship offer with a 247.25
  • You don't shouldn't be scared off by people with extremely high scores

Keep in mind that I'm a philosophy student and I've never taken stats or any course that deals with this kind of data manipulation so you can take everything I've posted with a grain of salt. Also remember that all I have access to is the same applicant profile PDF that everyone else does which means that there is going to be a larger margin of error than if I had access to the raw data. If anyone is interested, I can link to my data on google sheets.

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Amazing! Thanks for putting this together, you did a great job! 
 

It looks like someone just got accepted yesterday with an index of 239.75 (if their L2 calculation is correct). Interesting to see in the first round. 

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2 hours ago, fira17 said:

Amazing! Thanks for putting this together, you did a great job! 
 

It looks like someone just got accepted yesterday with an index of 239.75 (if their L2 calculation is correct). Interesting to see in the first round. 

Wow yeah, I just read that and it's pretty encouraging. A sub-240 index score is generally below the auto-admit range so that kind of score is interesting to see so early on. The pessimist inside me wants to guess that they just miscalculated their L2. People generally do a lot better as they go on in their undergrad, so if they are counting an older term or ignoring spring/summer classes then their L2 could be much higher. It also looks like they have a 170 LSAT (average) so that stat alone might be why they got an offer, but who knows?

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4 minutes ago, shmaleb said:

Wow yeah, I just read that and it's pretty encouraging. A sub-240 index score is generally below the auto-admit range so that kind of score is interesting to see so early on. The pessimist inside me wants to guess that they just miscalculated their L2. People generally do a lot better as they go on in their undergrad, so if they are counting an older term or ignoring spring/summer classes then their L2 could be much higher. It also looks like they have a 170 LSAT (average) so that stat alone might be why they got an offer, but who knows?

Haha totally, the pessimist in me feels the same way but as someone with a lower index score, I’m hoping this is real cuz it gives me a fighting chance! 

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29 minutes ago, fira17 said:

Haha totally, the pessimist in me feels the same way but as someone with a lower index score, I’m hoping this is real cuz it gives me a fighting chance! 

I haven't even got my LSAT score back yet because I waited until the january test... Really hoping the gods look with favour on us this cycle lol.

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4 minutes ago, shmaleb said:

I haven't even got my LSAT score back yet because I waited until the january test... Really hoping the gods look with favour on us this cycle lol.

Haha I wrote January as well, in an attempt to boost my average. I hate that UofA is the only school is basically all of North America to average LSAT scores. Fingers crossed, good luck to us! Offers are coming out pretty slow though. 

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2 hours ago, shmaleb said:

Wow yeah, I just read that and it's pretty encouraging. A sub-240 index score is generally below the auto-admit range so that kind of score is interesting to see so early on. The pessimist inside me wants to guess that they just miscalculated their L2. People generally do a lot better as they go on in their undergrad, so if they are counting an older term or ignoring spring/summer classes then their L2 could be much higher. It also looks like they have a 170 LSAT (average) so that stat alone might be why they got an offer, but who knows?

The auto admit number will always be an approximation because the U of A (traditionally) gives more weight to the LSAT than to GPA. As far as I understand the auto-admit number, it does not account for the greater LSAT weight (because the exact weighting is unknown). So the applicant who was accepted with a low GPA was accepted because their LSAT was extremely high. The auto-admit number will only ever be an approximation because the exact weightings are unknown. 

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20 minutes ago, Fuzzykittenz said:

The auto admit number will always be an approximation because the U of A (traditionally) gives more weight to the LSAT than to GPA. As far as I understand the auto-admit number, it does not account for the greater LSAT weight (because the exact weighting is unknown). So the applicant who was accepted with a low GPA was accepted because their LSAT was extremely high. The auto-admit number will only ever be an approximation because the exact weightings are unknown. 

It was my understanding that the index I used was an approximation of the weighting that the UofA uses. The 22.5*GPA+LSAT does give significant weight to the LSAT. Some people use 22 instead of 22.5 with the cutoff at 240 instead to weight the LSAT more heavily, but either way, the person in question (3.1GPA & 170 LSAT) would be below that cutoff. I am really hoping that the UofA looks more at LSAT than GPA like you said since my L2 is pretty meh.

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3 hours ago, shmaleb said:

Wow yeah, I just read that and it's pretty encouraging. A sub-240 index score is generally below the auto-admit range so that kind of score is interesting to see so early on. The pessimist inside me wants to guess that they just miscalculated their L2. People generally do a lot better as they go on in their undergrad, so if they are counting an older term or ignoring spring/summer classes then their L2 could be much higher. It also looks like they have a 170 LSAT (average) so that stat alone might be why they got an offer, but who knows?

I'm fairly sure the L2 is correctly calculated, or at least pretty close. I would also mention that my undergrad is somewhat atypical and I think they may have taken it into account, along with my work experience. I'm sure they had to have read my personal statement at least, which shows that UAlberta probably takes a more holistic approach than is commonly believed!

Edited by Cheech

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I think a 170 LSAT, regardless of GPA, would likely be an auto-admit at the U of A. I would be shocked if they were reading personal statements already. 

They say on the website that regular applicants are considered exclusively based on stats (LSAT + GPA)

Edited by Fuzzykittenz

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8 minutes ago, Fuzzykittenz said:

I think a 170 LSAT, regardless of GPA, would likely be an auto-admit at the U of A. I would be shocked if they were reading personal statements already. 

They say on the website that regular applicants are considered exclusively based on stats (LSAT + GPA)

Interesting. If that's the case then they must put a lot of weight on the LSAT.

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7 minutes ago, Fuzzykittenz said:

I think a 170 LSAT, regardless of GPA, would likely be an auto-admit at the U of A. I would be shocked if they were reading personal statements already. 

They say on the website that regular applicants are considered exclusively based on stats (LSAT + GPA)

That’s not necessarily the case. You will most likely not get in with something below a 3.0 just because you have a 170. They’re not reading personal statements yet, hence why we were surprised to see a lower index score be admitted so early in the process. Ofcourse the index is pure speculation too but it’s all we have to drive ourselves crazy haha. 

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33 minutes ago, fira17 said:

That’s not necessarily the case. You will most likely not get in with something below a 3.0 just because you have a 170. They’re not reading personal statements yet, hence why we were surprised to see a lower index score be admitted so early in the process. Ofcourse the index is pure speculation too but it’s all we have to drive ourselves crazy haha. 

I agree. The point of the index is to guess how well you'll do in law school so a 3.1+170 makes sense. We think of that as a "low" gpa but it's still above average; but like you said, a gpa < 3 would be a huge red flag. A 170 means you scored better than 97% of people applying to law school so it's quite impressive by itself. It makes sense that they admitted cheech since he'll probably do quite well with those stats even without his other qualifications. The index might not be what the university is actually using but by looking at past stats, the 240-242 rule seems to hold. The past stats also show that people don't get in with a gpa < 3. I really hope that the index is at least somewhat accurate just because it gives me hope. I think our best guess is to say that the index score for autoadmit is just a little lower this year.

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2 minutes ago, shmaleb said:

I agree. The point of the index is to guess how well you'll do in law school so a 3.1+170 makes sense. We think of that as a "low" gpa but it's still above average; but like you said, a gpa < 3 would be a huge red flag. A 170 means you scored better than 97% of people applying to law school so it's quite impressive by itself. It makes sense that they admitted cheech since he'll probably do quite well with those stats even without his other qualifications. The index might not be what the university is actually using but by looking at past stats, the 240-242 rule seems to hold. The past stats also show that people don't get in with a gpa < 3. I really hope that the index is at least somewhat accurate just because it gives me hope. I think our best guess is to say that the index score for autoadmit is just a little lower this year.

Great explanation! Agree with everything you said! 

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Thanks for compiling this! Really hoping that they'll dip a little lower than 239.75. If I understand UofA correctly, they'll convert my 77.9% L2 from UBC to a 3.3 GPA, which is good for a 239.25. My hopes aren't high though!

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3 minutes ago, EK65 said:

Thanks for compiling this! Really hoping that they'll dip a little lower than 239.75. If I understand UofA correctly, they'll convert my 77.9% L2 from UBC to a 3.3 GPA, which is good for a 239.25. My hopes aren't high though!

Keep hope for the holistic round! 

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This graph really stings for me if it is in fact true. 

Was rejected this past cycle with a 3.5 and a 162. By my calculations that would put my index score at 240.75.

So close... yet so far. 

It all worked out in the end and I'm really enjoying the program I'm in nonetheless! So for all of you out there worried by the daunting and infamous U of A index - there is still hope. 

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17 minutes ago, LionelHutzz said:

This graph really stings for me if it is in fact true. 

Was rejected this past cycle with a 3.5 and a 162. By my calculations that would put my index score at 240.75.

So close... yet so far. 

It all worked out in the end and I'm really enjoying the program I'm in nonetheless! So for all of you out there worried by the daunting and infamous U of A index - there is still hope. 

To clarify: by this cycle do you mean for next fall or for last year?

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1 hour ago, EK65 said:

Thanks for compiling this! Really hoping that they'll dip a little lower than 239.75. If I understand UofA correctly, they'll convert my 77.9% L2 from UBC to a 3.3 GPA, which is good for a 239.25. My hopes aren't high though!

I'd send a quick email to admissions about your GPA. There seems to be some confusion regarding how your percent GPA will be converted but if they have your transcripts they should just tell you. Seems like that GPA might be a 3.7.

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On 1/17/2020 at 12:23 AM, shmaleb said:

To clarify: by this cycle do you mean for next fall or for last year?

My apologies. Should've been more clear. I meant last year

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