Uhm, how did my post not age well? It posted a 66% return on initial investment in 3 years on the lowest risk possible stocks. It posted an annualized return rate of approximately 20%. All one had to do was not sell and not pay any attention to their portfolio. If you can post 20% return over 20-30 years, you will be a very very wealthy person.
Try doing the math on 20% compound interest over a long period of time...
- In 2018 February, Apple was at 43 usd (adjusted to post-stock split price). Now it's triple at around 120 usd after crashing 17% from its highs of 147 usd.
- In 2018 February, GS was 267 usd-ish. It's now at 327 usd and will likely be performing well this year hitting potentially 350 usd given the upward trend financials will get via rising yields and and recovering economy. There's also the 1.27% dividend yield. So essentially you'd be up 20% to date right now. If it goes to 350 this year, you're looking at 30% return not including reinvested dividends.
Bank of America 37.5 15 15625
- In February 2018, BAC was sitting in the low 30s (30-32). It is now 38.68 usd which looks like it will go higher as well for the same reasons as GS. Higher yields, well capitalized, and great investment bank returns could push this to at least the low 40s. That's a 20% return in 3 years not including their near 2% dividend yield. You're probably looking at closer to 30% at least when the year is done.
- This was at 44 usd in Feb 2018 and is now 53 usd. So around 25% gain since then. Since this is a re-opening play, it should easily hit 60 usd by years end. In sum, that's about 33% gain without factoring in their very nice 3.17% dividend yield. You're probably looking at closer to 40% since then.
Total returns doing regular stocks like above on lets say 50k invested total spread equally:
Approximately 83k USD (without adding in any dividends or future gains of this year). That should probably be closer to 100k by the end of this year and will continue to grow.
- Was at 10k usd in Feb 2018, now its around 55k. So that's a 5.5x return. Highly volatile but seems it'll continue pushing higher. I was wrong about it for sure and its longevity. But still, most people cannot tolerate its volatility and I still don't think it should be a large piece of someone's portfolio.
If you are lucky enough to day trade and make money, go for it. For the vast majority of people who are not wealthy and do not have free time on their hands, they have to choose stocks for the long term.
Was I wrong about bitcoin? Yea. 100%. But would you be some loser if you had went my way? I don't think so. You would be up 66% in 3 years. I've learned more things as an investor since that time period as well. But most people do not have time or the interest to learn and day trade stocks like @MetcalfeR - Metcalfe, would you rather own equities or bitcoin for the next 10-20 years? If you say bitcoin, you don't really know that for sure.
I still encourage people that don't have the time or patience to learn to go invest in a S&P ETF (SPY or VOO) and maybe an allocation into Cathie Wood's ETFs. If you have a little more time to research, you can look at other names like Tesla, Lightspeed, or whatever. I recently turned my attention to SPACs. I'm heavily invested in one called IPOE which will be turning into SOFI (Social Finance). I think a lot of people in this forum might really like SoFi.
Don't let people shame you into thinking 20% annually is a bad return. Maybe theres people with "diamond hands" who can literally join discord chats and follow reddit posts religiously. Most of us do not have that luxury. Invest 10-20% of your income if you can, or even 5% - whatever you can manage. Consistently apply it and your portfolio will grow over the long run.
The next frontier of investing and business will be an acceleration of technology and innovation. I'm excited for the next 5-10 years. I've geared my investments for that. I'm happy to share them if anyone is interested. If you hold Apple, banks, oils etc - I would be looking at transitioning those towards more tech/innovation long term winners over the course of this year. The economy has changed so investing should change as well.
I'm willing to admit some of my stock picks weren't perfect and in hindsight probably could have chosen others. But the risk of being in these were very low and I'm proud that they did well even after a global pandemic. Low risk yielded 66% total and 20% annualized return. That's actually better than virtually most hedge funds. That number looks good to me. Happy investing. :)