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I know they have to make some tough decisions, but a hireback rate below 50% is really brutal.
These fluctuations have tended to be cyclical through the years. I was talking to my father about this recently and in his articling year, only half of the students were hired back. Years later, as firms grew and took on more and more students, there was a period where, if you got an articing position, it was virtually a lock that you would be hired back. It was also virtually a lock that you'd be at that firm for as long as you wanted, provided you performed. Today, none of that is the case. In addition to firms being more attuned to only hiring the number of students they have the ability to provide a good amount of work for, they are also more financially attuned. This is what happens when a 'large' firm is no longer 100 but 400 or 500. The administrative staff has increased and, in conjunction with the partners who are running the firm, they have a responsibility to make the firm financially sound, in addition to profitable. This along with other changes, e.g.,the longer wait for partnership results in a closer look at the numbers of students being hired back. It also results in a closer look at associates performance, and, at some firms, many associates being let go in the first few years. I don't think that we're going to see any swing in the other direction anytime soon and I would caution those who are heading to law school with the sole intention of big firm work to be realistic in their expectations for the future.
In my opinion, the large firms could change up their model a bit and reduce the salary by a certain percentage for students/early calls and increase their hiring by the same percentage but that isn't going to happen. It also isn't going to happen that they hire the number of students that they think they'll need longterm because that would just exacerbate the articling issue. I truly think that students are going to have to change their mindsets about what they think a career in law is going to be. In addition to that, law schools are going to have to stop the biglaw or bust attitude of many CDOs and provide their students with information on other options. I'm looking at you, U of T. This is a shift in the legal employment that I doubt will improve.
My advice, as I mentioned in another thread, think about Calgary. The hiring there is booming at the moment. If you're a good candidate, you will have multiple offers. There's no guarantee of how long it will last, but my guess is that it will be a good long while.



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